Improved Survival Prediction by Combining Radiological Imaging and S-100B Levels Into a Multivariate Model in Metastatic Melanoma Patients Treated With Immune Checkpoint Inhibition

Purpose: We explored imaging and blood bio-markers for survival prediction in a cohort of patients with metastatic melanoma treated with immune checkpoint inhibition.

Materials and methods: 94 consecutive metastatic melanoma patients treated with immune checkpoint inhibition were included into this study. PET/CT imaging was available at baseline (Tp0), 3 months (Tp1) and 6 months (Tp2) after start of immunotherapy. Radiological response at Tp2 was evaluated using iRECIST. Total tumor burden (TB) at each time-point was measured and relative change of TB compared to baseline was calculated. LDH, CRP and S-100B were also analyzed. Cox proportional hazards model and logistic regression were used for survival analysis.

Results: iRECIST at Tp2 was significantly associated with overall survival (OS) with C-index=0.68. TB at baseline was not associated with OS, whereas TB at Tp1 and Tp2 provided similar predictive power with C-index of 0.67 and 0.71, respectively. Appearance of new metastatic lesions during follow-up was an independent prognostic factor (C-index=0.73). Elevated LDH and S-100B ratios at Tp2 were significantly associated with worse OS: C-index=0.73 for LDH and 0.73 for S-100B. Correlation of LDH with TB was weak (r=0.34). A multivariate model including TB change, S-100B, and appearance of new lesions showed the best predictive performance with C-index=0.83.

Conclusion: Our analysis shows only a weak correlation between LDH and TB. Additionally, baseline TB was not a prognostic factor in our cohort. A multivariate model combining early blood and imaging biomarkers achieved the best predictive power with regard to survival, outperforming iRECIST.