A Prognostic Model of Differentiated Thyroid Cancer Based on Up-Regulated Glycolysis-Related Genes

Objective: This study aims to identify reliable prognostic biomarkers for differentiated thyroid cancer (DTC) based on glycolysis-related genes (GRGs), and to construct a glycolysis-related gene model for predicting the prognosis of DTC patients.

Methods: We retrospectively analyzed the transcriptomic profiles and clinical parameters of 838 thyroid cancer patients from 6 public datasets. Single factor Cox proportional risk regression analysis and Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator (LASSO) were applied to screen genes related to prognosis based on 2528 GRGs. Then, an optimal prognostic model was developed as well as evaluated by Kaplan-Meier and ROC curves. In addition, the underlying molecular mechanisms in different risk subgroups were also explored via The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA) Pan-Cancer study.

Results: The glycolysis risk score (GRS) outperformed conventional clinicopathological features for recurrence-free survival prediction. The GRS model identified four candidate genes (ADM, MKI67, CD44 and TYMS), and an accurate predictive model of relapse in DTC patients was established that was highly correlated with prognosis (AUC of 0.767). In vitro assays revealed that high expression of those genes increased DTC cancer cell viability and invasion. Functional enrichment analysis indicated that these signature GRGs are involved in remodelling the tumour microenvironment, which has been demonstrated in pan-cancers. Finally, we generated an integrated decision tree and nomogram based on the GRS model and clinicopathological features to optimize risk stratification (AUC of the composite model was 0.815).

Conclusions: The GRG signature-based predictive model may help clinicians provide a prognosis for DTC patients with a high risk of recurrence after surgery and provide further personalized treatment to decrease the chance of relapse.