Low- and middle-income countries demonstrate rapid growth of type 2 diabetes: an analysis based on Global Burden of Disease 1990-2019 data

Aims/hypothesis: The study aims to quantify the global trend of the disease burden of type 2 diabetes caused by various risks factors by country income tiers.

Methods: Data on type 2 diabetes, including mortality and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) during 1990-2019, were obtained from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019. We analysed mortality and DALY rates and the population attributable fraction (PAF) in various risk factors of type 2 diabetes by country income tiers.

Results: Globally, the age-standardised death rate (ASDR) attributable to type 2 diabetes increased from 16.7 (15.7, 17.5)/100,000 person-years in 1990 to 18.5 (17.2, 19.7)/100,000 person-years in 2019. Similarly, age-standardised DALY rates increased from 628.3 (537.2, 730.9)/100,000 person-years to 801.5 (670.6, 954.4)/100,000 person-years during 1990-2019. Lower-middle-income countries reported the largest increase in the average annual growth of ASDR (1.3%) and an age-standardised DALY rate (1.6%) of type 2 diabetes. The key PAF attributing to type 2 diabetes deaths/DALYs was high BMI in countries of all income tiers. With the exception of BMI, while in low- and lower-middle-income countries, risk factors attributable to type 2 diabetes-related deaths and DALYs are mostly environment-related, the risk factors in high-income countries are mostly lifestyle-related.

Conclusions/interpretation: Type 2 diabetes disease burden increased globally, but low- and middle-income countries showed the highest growth rate. A high BMI level remained the key contributing factor in all income tiers, but environmental and lifestyle-related factors contributed differently across income tiers.

Data availability: To download the data used in these analyses, please visit the Global Health Data Exchange at http://ghdx.healthdata.org/gbd-2019 .