Accuracy of the Breast Cancer Surveillance Consortium Model Among Women with LCIS

Purpose: The Breast Cancer Surveillance Consortium (BCSC) model predicts risk of invasive breast cancer risk based on age, race, family history, breast density, and history of benign breast disease, including lobular carcinoma in situ (LCIS). However, validation studies for this model included few women with LCIS. We sought to evaluate the accuracy of the BCSC model among this cohort.

Methods: Women with LCIS diagnosed between 1983 and 2017 were identified from a prospectively maintained database. The BCSC score was calculated; those with prior breast cancer, unknown breast density, age < 35 years or > 74 years, or with history of chemoprevention use were excluded. The Kaplan-Meier method was used to estimate incidence rates. Time-dependent receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis was used to analyze the discriminative capacity of the model.

Results: 1302 women with LCIS were included. At a median follow-up of 7 years, 152 women (12%) developed invasive cancer (6 with bilateral disease). Cumulative incidences of invasive breast cancer were 7.1% (95% CI 5.6-8.7) and 13.3% (95% CI 10.9-15.6), respectively, and the median BCSC risk scores were 4.9 and 10.4, respectively, at 5 and 10 years. The median 10-year BCSC score was significantly lower than the 10-year Tyrer-Cuzick score (10.4 vs 20.8, p < 0.001). The ROC curve scores (AUC) for BCSC at 5 and 10 years were 0.59 (95% CI 0.52-0.66) and 0.58 (95% CI 0.52-0.64), respectively.

Conclusion: The BCSC model has moderate accuracy in predicting invasive breast cancer risk among women with LCIS with fair discrimination for risk prediction between individuals.