SARS-CoV-2 cases reported from long-term residential facilities (care homes) in South Africa: a retrospective cohort study

Background: Globally, long-term care facilities (LTCFs) experienced a large burden of deaths during the COVID-19 pandemic. The study aimed to describe the temporal trends as well as the characteristics and risk factors for mortality among residents and staff who tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 in selected LTCFs across South Africa.

Method: We analysed data reported to the DATCOV sentinel surveillance system by 45 LTCFs. Outbreaks in LTCFs were defined as large if more than one-third of residents and staff had been infected or there were more than 20 epidemiologically linked cases. Multivariable logistic regression was used to assess risk factors for mortality amongst LTCF residents.

Results: A total of 2324 SARS-CoV-2 cases were reported from 5 March 2020 through 31 July 2021; 1504 (65%) were residents and 820 (35%) staff. Among LTCFs, 6 reported sporadic cases and 39 experienced outbreaks. Of those reporting outbreaks, 10 (26%) reported one and 29 (74%) reported more than one outbreak. There were 48 (66.7%) small outbreaks and 24 (33.3%) large outbreaks reported. There were 30 outbreaks reported in the first wave, 21 in the second wave and 15 in the third wave, with 6 outbreaks reporting between waves. There were 1259 cases during the first COVID-19 wave, 362 during the second wave, and 299 during the current third wave. The case fatality ratio was 9% (138/1504) among residents and 0.5% (4/820) among staff. On multivariable analysis, factors associated with SARS-CoV-2 mortality among LTCF residents were age 40-59 years, 60-79 years and ≥ 80 years compared to < 40 years and being a resident in a LTCF in Free State or Northern Cape compared to Western Cape. Compared to pre-wave 1, there was a decreased risk of mortality in wave 1, post-wave 1, wave 2, post-wave 2 and wave 3.

Conclusion: The analysis of SARS-CoV-2 cases in sentinel LTCFs in South Africa points to an encouraging trend of decreasing numbers of outbreaks, cases and risk for mortality since the first wave. LTCFs are likely to have learnt from international experience and adopted national protocols, which include improved measures to limit transmission and administer early and appropriate clinical care.