Number of Worrisome Features and Risk of Malignancy in Intraductal Papillary Mucinous Neoplasm

Background: The 2017 revised International Association of Pancreatology guidelines for management of intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasm (IPMN) describe worrisome features (WF) and high-risk stigmata (HRS), recommending resection in the latter and further work-up and close surveillance for patients with WF. The effect of multiple WF on the likelihood of malignancy has not been evaluated.

Study design: Eight hundred ten patients who underwent pancreatic resection for IPMN in 2 tertiary referral centers were identified from prospective institutional databases. Patients were retrospectively categorized into subgroups according to the number of WF or HRS and presence of malignancy, defined as high-grade dysplasia (HGD) or invasive cancer on final pathology.

Results: Three hundred seventy-nine (47%) patients had HRS, 370 (46%) had 1 or more WF, and 61 patients (7%) had neither. Malignancy was present in 70% (n = 267) of patients with HRS and in 30% (n = 127) of those with WF. Only 3 of 61 patients without WF/HRS had malignancy, and all only in the form of HGD. The risk of malignancy increased in a stepwise fashion with the number of WF, to 22%, 34%, and 59% with 1, 2, and 3 WF, respectively (p = 0.001), and reached 100% in patients with 4 or more WF. Although the relative risks differed for particular WF, the areas under the curve were not statistically different.

Conclusion: We confirm that presence of HRS in IPMN is associated with a very high likelihood of malignancy. The presence of a single WF has a malignancy risk of 22%, and additional WF increase this risk significantly. When 3 or more WF are present, the risk is similar to that of HRS.