Assess transmissibility of different influenza subtypes: Based on a SEIABR model

Objective: Influenza is a worldwide public health problem which causes a serious economic and health burden. In order to provide a scientific basis for improving the prevention and control level of influenza, using dynamic model to evaluate the infection rates of influenza different subtypes from 2010 to 2019 in China.

Methods: This article established SEIABR model based on influenza cases reported by China National Influenza Center from 2010 to 2019. And calculated the transmission rate and R_e by combined the natural birth rate, natural death rate, infectious rate, proportion of asymptomatic patients, proportion of untreated patients, recovery rate and fatality rate.

Results: The average infection rate of influenza was (2.38 ± 0.59) × 10^-10, and influenza A was (2.24 ± 0.51) × 10^-10, influenza B was (2.21 ± 0.68) × 10^-10. And average R_e were 1.60, 1.51, 1.49. In addition, the infection rates of A /H1N1, A/H3N2, B/Yamagata and B/Victoria were (2.47 ± 0.51) × 10^-10, (2.25 ± 0.48) × 10^-10, (2.15 ± 0.61) × 10^-10, and (2.30 ± 0.66) × 10^-10 and average R_e were 1.67, 1.52, 1.44, 1.56.

Conclusion: Between each year, flu transmission capacity had fluctuation. Influenza A was more transmissible than influenza B, and during the major subtypes, influenza A/H1N1 was the most transmissible.