Opioid Dependence and Overdose After Surgery: Rate, Risk Factors, and Reasons

Objective: To determine: (1) incidence of " opioid never events " ( ONEs ), defined as the development of opioid dependence or overdose in an opioid-naive surgical patient who is prescribed opioids postoperatively and (2) risk factors predicting ONEs.

Background: Patients receiving opioids after surgery are at risk of experiencing life-threatening opioid-related adverse events.

Methods: An electronic medical record review identified surgical patients at an academic medical center between January 1, 2015, and December 31, 2018, followed through March 31, 2020. ONEs were determined by International Classification of Diseases, Ninth/10th Revision (ICD-9/10) codes, and electronic medical record review.

Results: A total of 35,335 opioid-naive surgical patients received a perioperative opioid prescription. The median follow-up was 3.47 years (range: 1.25-5.25 years). ONEs occurred in 0.19% (67/35,335) of patients. The ONE rate was 5.6 per 10,000 person-years of follow-up. Ten of 67 ONE patients overdosed on opioids. The median time to ONE was 1.6 years; the highest ONE rate was observed 1 to 2 years after surgery. In multivariate analysis, patients receiving opioid prescriptions 90 to 180 or 90 to 360 days after surgery had the highest risk of developing ONEs [hazard ratio (HR)=6.39, confidence interval (CI): 3.72-10.973; HR=6.87, CI: 4.24-11.12, respectively]. Surgical specialty (HR=5.21, 2.65-0.23) and patient age (HR=4.17, CI: 2.50-6.96) were also risk factors for ONEs. Persistent opioid use 90 to 360 days after surgery was present in 45% of patients developing ONEs.

Conclusions: Postoperative opioid dependence or overdose is a significant health problem, affecting roughly 2 per 1000 opioid-naive surgical patients prescribed an opioid and followed for 5 years. Risk factors for the development of ONEs include opioid use 3 to 12 months after surgery, patient age, and surgical procedure.