Prospective cohort study of the evaluation of patient benefit from the redevelopment of a complete national forensic mental health service: the Dundrum Forensic Redevelopment Evaluation Study (D-FOREST) protocol

Introduction: Secure forensic mental health services are low volume, high cost services. They offer care and treatment to mentally disordered offenders who pose a high risk of serious violence to others. It is therefore incumbent on these services to systematically evaluate the outcomes of the care and treatment they deliver to ensure patient benefit in multiple domains. These should include physical and mental health outcomes, as well as offending related outcomes. The aim of Dundrum Forensic Redevelopment Evaluation Study (D-FOREST) is to complete a structured evaluation study of a complete national forensic mental health service, at the time of redevelopment of the National Forensic Mental Health Service for the Ireland.

Methods and analysis: D-FOREST is a multisite, prospective observational cohort study. The study uses a combination of baseline and repeated measures, to evaluate patient benefit from admissions to forensic settings. Patients will be rated for physical health, mental health, offending behaviours and other recovery measures relevant to the forensic hospital setting at admission to the hospital and 6 monthly thereafter.Lagged causal model analysis will be used to assess the existence and significance of potential directed relationships between the baseline measures of symptomatology of schizophrenia and violence risk and final outcome namely length of stay. Time intervals including length of stay will be measured by median and 95% CI using Kaplan-Meier and Cox regression analyses and survival analyses. Patient related measures will be rated as changes from baseline using general estimating equations for repeated measures, analysis of variance, analysis of covariance or logistic regression.

Ethics and dissemination: The study has received approval from the Research Ethics and Effectiveness Committee of the National Forensic Mental Health Service, Ireland. Results will be made available to the funder and to forensic psychiatry researchers via international conferences and peer-reviewed publications.

Trial registration number: NCT05074732.