Trends in Early and Late Mortality in Patients With Severe Acute Pancreatitis Admitted to ICUs: A Nationwide Cohort Study

Objectives: To investigate national mortality trends over a 12-year period for patients with severe acute pancreatitis (SAP) admitted to Dutch ICUs. Additionally, an assessment of outcome in SAP was undertaken to differentiate between early (< 14 d of ICU admission) and late (> 14 d of ICU admission) mortality.

Design: Data from the Dutch National Intensive Care Evaluation and health insurance companies' databases were extracted. Outcomes included 14-day, ICU, hospital, and 1-year mortality. Mortality before and after 2010 was compared using mixed logistic regression and mixed Cox proportional-hazards models. Sensitivity analyses, excluding early mortality, were performed to assess trends in late mortality.

Setting: Not applicable.

Patients: Consecutive adult patients with SAP admitted to all 81 Dutch ICUs between 2007 and 2018.

Interventions: Not applicable.

Measurements and main results: Among 4,160 patients treated in 81 ICUs, 14-day mortality was 17%, ICU mortality 17%, hospital mortality 23%, and 1-year mortality 33%. After 2010 in-hospital mortality adjusted for age, sex, modified Marshall, and Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation III scores were lower (odds ratio [OR], 0.76; 95% CI, 0.61-0.94) than before 2010. There was no change in ICU and 1-year mortality. Sensitivity analyses excluding patients with early mortality demonstrated a decreased ICU mortality (OR, 0.45; 95% CI, 0.32-0.64), decreased in-hospital (OR, 0.48; 95% CI, 0.36-0.63), and decreased 1-year mortality (hazard ratio, 0.81; 95% CI, 0.68-0.96) after 2010 compared with 2007-2010.

Conclusions: Over the 12-year period examined, mortality in patients with SAP admitted to Dutch ICUs did not change, although after 2010 late mortality decreased. Novel therapies should focus on preventing early mortality in SAP.