Clinical significance of prediabetes, undiagnosed diabetes and diagnosed diabetes on critical outcomes in COVID-19: Integrative analysis from the Japan COVID-19 task force

Aim: Diabetes mellitus (DM) is a known risk factor for severe coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), but the clinical impact of undiagnosed diabetes and prediabetes in COVID-19 are unclear particularly in Japan. We clarify the difference in clinical characteristics, including age, sex, body mass index and co-morbidities, laboratory findings and critical outcomes, in a large Japanese COVID-19 cohort without diabetes, with prediabetes, undiagnosed diabetes and diagnosed diabetes, and to identify associated risk factors.

Materials and methods: This multicentre, retrospective cohort study used the Japan COVID-19 Task Force database, which included data on 2430 hospitalized COVID-19 patients from over 70 hospitals from February 2020 to October 2021. The prevalence of prediabetes, undiagnosed diabetes and diagnosed diabetes were estimated based on HbA1c levels or a clinical diabetes history. Critical outcomes were defined as the use of high-flow oxygen, invasive positive-pressure ventilation or extracorporeal membrane oxygenation, or death during hospitalization.

Results: Prediabetes, undiagnosed diabetes and diagnosed diabetes were observed in 40.9%, 10.0% and 23.0%, respectively. Similar to diagnosed diabetes, prediabetes and undiagnosed diabetes were risk factors for critical COVID-19 outcomes (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] [95% CI]: 2.13 [1.31-3.48] and 4.00 [2.19-7.28], respectively). HbA1c was associated with COVID-19 severity in prediabetes patients (aOR [95% CI]: 11.2 [3.49-36.3]), but not other groups.

Conclusions: We documented the clinical characteristics and outcomes of Japanese COVID-19 patients according to HbA1c levels or diabetes co-morbidity. As well as undiagnosed and diagnosed diabetes, physicians should be aware of prediabetes related to COVID-19 severity.