Mid- and later-life risk factors for predicting neuropathological brain changes associated with Alzheimer's and vascular dementia: The Honolulu Asia Aging Study and the Age, Gene/Environment Susceptibility-Reykjavik Study

Introduction: Dementia prediction models are necessary to inform the development of dementia risk reduction strategies. Here, we examine the utility of neuropathological-based risk scores to predict clinical dementia.

Methods: Models were developed for predicting Alzheimer's disease (AD) and non-AD neuropathologies using the Honolulu Asia Aging neuropathological sub-study (HAAS; n = 852). Model accuracy for predicting clinical dementia, over 30 years, was tested in the non-autopsied HAAS sample (n = 2960) and the Age, Gene/Environment Susceptibility-Reykjavik Study (n = 4614).

Results: Different models were identified for predicting neurodegenerative and vascular neuropathology (c-statistic range: 0.62 to 0.72). These typically included age, APOE, and a blood pressure-related measure. The neurofibrillary tangle and micro-vascular lesion models showed good accuracy for predicting clinical vascular dementia.

Discussion: There may be shared risk factors across dementia-related lesions, suggesting common pathways. Strategies targeting these models may reduce risk or postpone clinical symptoms of dementia as well as reduce neuropathological burden associated with AD and vascular lesions.