SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence and infection rate in Manila, Philippines prior to national vaccination program implementation: a repeated cross-sectional analysis

Background: SARS-CoV-2 seroepidemiological studies are used to guide public health decision making and to prepare for emerging infectious diseases. Disease occurrence estimates are limited in the Philippines, the country with the highest reported number of coronavirus disease-related deaths in the Western Pacific region. We aimed to estimate SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence and infection rate among outpatient clinic attendees in Metro Manila prior to the implementation of the national coronavirus disease vaccination program.

Methods: We conducted repeated cross-sectional surveys at the animal bite clinic in San Lazaro Hospital, Manila, the Philippines across four periods, 3 months apart, between May 2020 and March 2021. Multivariable logistic regression was used to assess associations between different characteristics and infection status including seropositivity.

Results: In total 615 participants were enrolled, ranging from 115 to 174 per period. Seroprevalence quadrupled between the first (11.3%) and second (46.8%) periods and plateaued thereafter (third-46.0%, fourth-44.6%). Among seropositive participants, total antibody concentration was comparable throughout the first to third periods but declined between the third and fourth periods. Infection prevalence was comparable across enrollment periods (range 2.9-9.5%). Post-secondary education [aOR 0.42 (95% CI 0.26, 0.67)] was protective, and frontline work [aOR 1.81 (95% CI 1.18, 2.80)] was associated with increased odds of seropositivity. Frontline work status [aOR 2.27 (95% CI 1.10, 4.75)] and large household size [aOR 2.45 (95% CI 1.18, 5.49)] were associated with increased odds of infection.

Conclusions: The quadrupling of seroprevalence over 3 months between the first and second enrollment periods coincided with the high burden of infection in Metro Manila in early 2020. Our findings suggest a limit to the rise and potential decline of population-level SARS-CoV-2 infection-induced immunity without introduction of vaccines. These results may add to our understanding of how immunity develops against emerging infectious diseases including coronaviruses.