Women's risk of death beyond 42 days post partum: a pooled analysis of longitudinal Health and Demographic Surveillance System data in sub-Saharan Africa

Background: WHO's standard definitions of pregnancy-related and maternal deaths only include deaths that occur within 42 days of delivery, termination, or abortion, with major implications for post-partum care and maternal mortality surveillance. We therefore estimated post-partum survival from childbirth up to 1 year post partum to evaluate the empirical justification for the 42-day post-partum threshold.

Methods: We used prospective, longitudinal Health and Demographic Surveillance System (HDSS) data from 30 sites across 12 sub-Saharan African countries to estimate women's risk of death from childbirth until 1 year post partum from all causes. Observations were included if the childbirth occurred from 1991 onwards in the HDSS site and maternal age was 10-54 years. We calculated person-years as the time between childbirth and next birth, outmigration, death, or the end of the first year post partum, whichever occurred first. For six post-partum risk intervals (0-1 days, 2-6 days, 7-13 days, 14-41 days, 42-122 days, and 4-11 months), we calculated the adjusted rate ratios of death relative to a baseline risk of 12-17 months post partum.

Findings: Between Jan 1, 1991, and Feb 24, 2020, 647 104 births occurred in the HDSS sites, contributing to 602 170 person-years of exposure time and 1967 deaths within 1 year of delivery. After adjustment for confounding, mortality was 38·82 (95% CI 33·21-45·29) times higher than baseline on days 0-1 after childbirth, 4·97 (3·94-6·21) times higher for days 2-6, 3·35 (2·64-4·20) times higher for days 7-13, and 2·06 (1·74-2·44) times higher for days 14-41. From 42 days to 4 months post partum, mortality was still 1·20 (1·03-1·39) times higher (ie, a 20% higher risk), but deaths in this interval would be excluded from measurement of pregnancy-related mortality. Extending the WHO 42-day post-partum threshold up to 4 months would increase the post-partum pregnancy-related mortality ratio by 40%.

Interpretation: This multicountry study has implications for measurement and clinical practice. It makes the case for WHO to extend the 42-day post-partum threshold to capture the full duration of risk of pregnancy-related deaths. There is a need for a new indicator to track late pregnancy-related deaths that occur beyond 42 days, which are otherwise excluded from global maternal health surveillance efforts. Our results also emphasise the need for international agencies to disaggregate estimates by antepartum, intrapartum, postpartum, and extended post-partum periods. Additionally, the schedule and content of postnatal care packages should reflect the extended duration of post-partum risk.

Funding: The UK Economic and Social Research Council.