Direct relationship between transvalvular velocity and cardiac dysfunction, morbidity, and mortality in patients with aortic stenosis

Objective: Current guidelines recommend intervention in subjects with severe symptomatic aortic stenosis (AS), even though any degree of AS is associated with a higher risk of mortality. We investigated the association between the degree of AS, delineated by transvalvular flow velocity, and patient morbidity and mortality.

Methods: Medically managed patients aged 40-95 years with maximum flow velocity (V_max ) by echocardiography between 2013 and 2018 were stratified into five groups (A-E) based on the 75th, 90th, 97.5th, and the 99th percentiles of V_max distribution. Patient characteristics, cardiac structural changes, and end-organ disease were compared using Kruskal-Wallis and Cochran-Armitage tests. Mortality over a median of 2.8 (1.52-4.8) years was compared using Kaplan-Meier curves and risk estimates were derived from the Cox model.

Results: The V_max was reported in 37,131 patients. There was a steady increase (from Group A towards E) in age, Caucasian race, structural cardiac changes, end-organ morbidities, and all-cause mortality. In reference to Group A, there as an increased risk of mortality in Groups B (hazard ratio [HR] = 1.3; confidence interval [CI]: 1.2-1.35; p < .0001), C (HR = 1.5; CI: 1.4-1.6; p < .0001), and D (HR = 1.8; CI: 1.6-2; p < .0001), with an exponential increase in Group E (HR = 2.5; CI: 2.2-2.8; p < .0001).

Conclusions: A direct, strong correlation exists between the degree of AS and cardiac structural changes and mortality. Patients with V_max ≥ 97.5th percentile (≥3.2 m/s) might benefit from early intervention.