Beyond successful hemostasis: CT findings and organ failure predict postoperative death in patients suffering from post-pancreatoduodenectomy hemorrhage

Background: To predict postoperative death even after successful hemostasis in patients with post pancreatoduodenectomy pancreatic fistula-associated hemorrhage (PPFH).

Methods: Patients who underwent pancreatoduodenectomy (PD) between September 2011 and August 2020 were identified. PPFH patients were enrolled in this retrospective case-control study and divided into the Cured and Death groups. Perioperative variables were analyzed, especially the characteristics of PPFH and CT image findings.

Results: Among the 2732 consecutive pancreaticoduodenectomies, 63 patients (2.3%) were confirmed to have PPFH. The mortality rate of patients following PPFH was 50.8% (32/63). After univariate and multivariate analysis, organ failure 24 h before initial hemorrhage (P = 0.039, OR = 11.53, 95% CI: 1.14-117.00), CT imaging findings of the operative area bubble sign (P = 0.021, OR = 5.15, 95% CI: 1.28-20.79) and PJ dehiscence (P = 0.016, OR = 8.95, 95% CI: 1.50-53.38) were remained as significant predictive factors of postoperative death for PPFH patients.

Conclusions: Patients following PPFH showed a high mortality rate. Organ failure and CT evidence of pancreaticojejunostomy (PJ) dehiscence and operative area bubble signs before initial hemorrhage may allow early prediction of postoperative death in PPFH patients.