Discovering why some people's cognitive abilities decline more than others is a key challenge for cognitive ageing research. The most effective strategy may be to address multiple risk factors from across the life-course simultaneously in relation to robust longitudinal cognitive data. We conducted a 12-year follow-up of 1091 (at age 70) men and women from the longitudinal Lothian Birth Cohort 1936 study. Comprehensive repeated cognitive measures of visuospatial ability, processing speed, memory, verbal ability, and a general cognitive factor were collected over five assessments (age 70, 73, 76, 79, and 82 years) and analysed using multivariate latent growth curve modelling. Fifteen life-course variables were used to predict variation in cognitive ability levels at age 70 and cognitive slopes from age 70 to 82. Only APOE e4 carrier status was found to be reliably informative of general- and domain-specific cognitive decline, despite there being many life-course correlates of cognitive level at age 70. APOE e4 carriers had significantly steeper slopes across all three fluid cognitive domains compared with non-carriers, especially for memory (β = -0.234, p < 0.001) and general cognitive function (β = -0.246, p < 0.001), denoting a widening gap in cognitive functioning with increasing age. Our findings suggest that when many other candidate predictors of cognitive ageing slope are entered en masse, their unique contributions account for relatively small proportions of variance, beyond variation in APOE e4 status. We conclude that APOE e4 status is important for identifying those at greater risk for accelerated cognitive ageing, even among ostensibly healthy individuals.
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