Socioecological Predictors of Change in Adolescent Tobacco Use Across Waves 1-4 of the Population Assessment of Tobacco and Health Study

Background: Despite decreases in adolescents' cigarette use over the past decade, overall rates of adolescent tobacco use have increased. Research examining adolescents' changes across a range of tobacco products reflective of the current market, as well as multilevel predictors of use trajectories is needed.

Methods: Data derive from Waves 1-4 (W1-4; 2013-2018) of the Population Assessment of Tobacco and Health (PATH) study. Participants included 975 adolescents who used ≥1 tobacco product (cigarettes, electronic cigarettes [ECIGs], traditional cigars, cigarillos, filtered cigars, snus, smokeless tobacco [SLT], hookah) at any wave (W1 M_age = 13.29 [0.86], 54.2% male; 54.5% White, 25.9% Hispanic).

Results: Utilizing latent growth curve modeling (separate models per product), adolescents displayed increases in their past 30-day use of all tobacco products from W1-4. Greater W1 use was predicted by identifying as non-Hispanic (cigarettes); lower parent education (SLT); greater externalizing problems (cigarillos); greater motives (all products except cigarillos); greater youth-reported household smoking rules (cigarillos); and greater isolation (ECIGs). More use across time (i.e., higher slope) was predicted by older age (cigarettes); identifying as male (ECIGs, SLT), Black (vs. White; cigarillos), White (vs. Black, Hispanic; ECIGs, SLT); fewer externalizing problems (SLT); fewer motives (ECIGs); fewer youth-reported rules (cigarillos, SLT); and greater geographic isolation (cigarettes, SLT).

Discussion: Although some individual-level factors (i.e., motives, externalizing problems) predicted greater W1 use (i.e., intercept) only, interpersonal- (parent rules) and community-level (geographic isolation) factors were associated with changes in use over time (i.e., slope). Intervention efforts may address such factors to reduce adolescents' escalations in use.