Macroeconomic consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic

Econ Model. 2023 Mar:120:106147. doi: 10.1016/j.econmod.2022.106147. Epub 2022 Dec 21.

Abstract

We estimate the economic impacts of COVID-19 in the U.S. using a disaster economic consequence analysis framework implemented by a dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model. This facilitates identification of relative influences of several causal factors as "shocks" to the model, including mandatory business closures, disease spread trajectories, behavioral responses, resilience, pent-up demand, and government stimulus packages. The analysis is grounded in primary data on avoidance behavior and healthcare parameters. The decomposition of the influence of various causal factors will help policymakers offset the negative influences and reinforce the positive ones during the remainder of this pandemic and future ones.

Keywords: Avoidance behavior; CGE Modeling; COVID-19; Disaster economics; Resilience.