Burden of Diabetes Mellitus in Nepal: An Analysis of Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Globally, the number of people living with diabetes mellitus (DM) increased by 62% between 1990 and 2019, affecting 463 million people in 2019, and is projected to increase further by 51% by 2045. The increasing burden of DM that requires chronic care could have a considerable cost implication in the health system, particularly in resource constraint settings like Nepal. In this context, this study attempts to present the burden of DM in terms of prevalence, mortality, and disability adjusted life years (DALYs). The study is based on the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019, a multinational collaborative research, led by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluations. In the study, the overall prevalence of DM was estimated using DisMod MR-2.1, a Bayesian metaregression model. DALYs were estimated summing years of life lost due to premature death and years lived with disability. There were a total of 1,412,180 prevalent cases of DM, 3,474 deaths and 189,727 DALYs, due to DM in 2019. All-age prevalence rate and the age-standardized prevalence rate of DM stood at 4,642.83 (95% uncertainty interval (UI): 4,178.58-5,137.74) and 5,735.58 (95% UI: 5,168.74-6327.73) cases per 100,000 population, respectively, in 2019. In 2019, 1.8% (95% UI: 1.54, 2.07) of total deaths were from DM, which is a more than three-fold increase from the proportion of deaths attributed in 1990 (0.43%, 95% UI: 0.36, 0.5) with most of these deaths being from DM type 2. In 2019, a total of 189,727 disability adjusted life years (DALYs) were attributable to DM of which 105,950 DALYs were among males, and the remaining 83,777 DALYs were among females. Overall, between 1990 and 2019, the DALYs, attributable to Type 1 and 2 DM combined and for Type 2 DM only, have increased gradually across both sexes. However, the DALYs per 100,000 attributable to DM have slightly reduced across both sexes in that time. There is a high burden of DM in Nepal in 2019 with a steep increase in the proportion of deaths attributable to DM in Nepal which could pose a serious challenge to the health system. Primary prevention of DM requires collaborative efforts from multiple sectors. Meanwhile, the current federal structure could be an opportunity for integrated, locally tailored public health and clinical interventions for the prevention of the disease and its consequences.