Modified percutaneous coronary intervention-derived risk models (PARIS and CREDO-Kyoto integer scoring systems) applied to Japanese transcatheter aortic valve replacement patients

Objective: Postprocedural ischaemic and bleeding risks after transcatheter aortic valve replacement (TAVR) remain a major concern. Nevertheless, no reliable risk models incorporating both possibilities are currently available. We aimed to assess the accuracy of percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI)-derived models and the performance of a recalibrated model that included variables more applicable to TAVR.

Methods: This study included 26 869 patients who had been enrolled in a national registry. Ischaemic events were defined as myocardial infarction, stroke, transient ischaemic attack or peripheral embolism at 1 year. Bleeding events were defined as any bleeding based on the Valve Academic Research Consortium-2 consensus document at 1 year. Patterns of Non-adherence to Anti-Platelet Regimen in Stented Patients (PARIS) and Coronary Revascularisation Demonstrating Outcome Study in Kyoto (CREDO-Kyoto) integer scoring systems were tested. The models were recalibrated by applying new variables using the Fine and Gray method.

Results: The 1-year cumulative incidences for ischaemic and bleeding events were 2.7% and 3.1%. Patients with high PARIS and CREDO-Kyoto risk scores had higher incidences of both ischaemic (3.3% vs 2.4% vs 2.4%, p<0.001 and 2.8% vs 2.0% vs 0.8%, p<0.001) and bleeding events (3.3% vs 2.5% vs 0.8%, p<0.001 and 3.7% vs 3.0% vs 2.4%, p<0.001) when compared with intermediate and low-risk patients. The receiver operating characteristic area under the curves for these models were 0.53, 0.58, 0.56 and 0.55, respectively. After the models were recalibrated to incorporate variables more applicable to TAVR, the performance of ischaemic and bleeding models modestly improved (0.58 and 0.61, respectively).

Conclusions: The PCI-derived models demonstrated modest accuracy but was inadequate for risk stratification of TAVR patients at 1-year follow-up.

Trial registration number: 3395.