Distribution of livestock sectors in Canada: Implications for manureshed management

Canada's livestock production and human populations are concentrated in southern regions. Understanding spatial and temporal distributions of animals and excreted nutrients is key to optimizing manure resources and minimizing impact of livestock. Here, we identify manureshed concerns and opportunities by reconciling nitrogen supply and demand on a regional and national scale. Data based on national statistics and farm surveys were allocated to homogeneous soil polygons (Soil Landscapes of Canada [SLC]) to quantify changes in nutrient distribution and ammonia (NH₃ ) emissions across Canada (1981-2018). Livestock sectors tied to domestic consumption, dairy and poultry, were stable over time and well dispersed. Export driven beef production has moved west since 1981, whereas pig production was prominent in Manitoba, Quebec, and Ontario. Per ha manure N excretion across livestock sectors in 2018 was generally low with 58% and 6% of the SLCs averaging <25 and >100 kg N ha^-1 , respectively. Although only 3% of SLCs had average NH₃ emissions reaching 16-200 kg ha^-1 , most of these were located near cities and emissions spiked in spring when more people might be exposed. The greatest concentrations of nutrients and livestock occurred around the three largest metropolitan areas: Toronto, Montreal-Quebec City, and Vancouver, posing challenges for nutrient recycling and public health. This study shows that as Canadian cities and livestock agriculture grow in southern Canada, so will challenges around food production, human health, and managing nutrients. Livestock and land use strategies are needed to reconcile changing animal sectors and growing populations.