European Association of Urology biochemical recurrence risk groups after radical prostatectomy: External validation and identification of independent risk factors for progression and death

Background: The EAU proposed a progression and death risk classification in patients with biochemical recurrence after radical prostatectomy (PR).

Objective: To validate the EAU BCR-risk classification in our setting and to find factors related to progression and death.

Material and methods: Multicenter, retrospective, observational study including 2140 patients underwent RP between 2011 and 2015. Patients with BCR were identified and stratified in low risk (PSA-DT >1yr and pGS <8) or high-risk (PSA-DT ≤1yr or pGS ≥8) grouping. PSA and metastatic free survival (PSA-PFS, MFS), cancer specific survival (CSS) and overall survival (OS) were calculated (Kaplan Meier curves and log-rank test). Independent risk factors were identified (Cox regression).

Results: 427 patients experienced BCR (32.3% low-risk and 67.7% high-risk). Median PSA-PFS was 135,0 mo (95% CI 129,63-140,94) and 115,0 mo (95% CI 104,02-125,98) (p<0,001), for low and high-risk groups, respectively. There were also significant differences in MFS and OS. The EAU BCR risk grouping was independent factor for PSA-progression (HR 2.55, p 0.009). Time from PR to BCR, was an independent factor for metastasis onset (HR 0.43, 95% CI 0.18-0.99; p 0.044) and death (HR 0.17, 95% CI 0.26.0.96; 23 p 0.048). Differences in MFS (p 0.001) and CSS (p 0.004) were found for <12, ≥12-<36 and ≥36 months from PR to BCR. Others independent factors were early salvage radiotherapy and PSA at BCR.

Conclusions: High-risk group is a prognostic factor for biochemical progression, but it has a limited accuracy on MP and death in our setting. The inclusion of other factors could increase its predictive power.