Percent Insular Ribbon Infarction for Predicting Infarct Growth Rate and 90-Day Outcomes in Large-Vessel Occlusive Stroke: Secondary Analysis of Prospective Clinical Trial Data

BACKGROUND. Insight into the natural history of infarct growth could help identify patients with slowly progressing stroke who may benefit from delayed endovascular thrombectomy (EVT). OBJECTIVE. The purpose of this article is to evaluate associations of percent insular ribbon infarction (PIRI) with infarct growth rate (IGR) and 90-day outcomes in patients with large-vessel occlusive stroke. METHODS. This retrospective study was a secondary analysis of a prior clinical trial that enrolled patients with acute stroke not treated with reperfusion therapies from January 2007 to June 2009. The present analysis evaluated 31 trial patients (median age, 71 years; 12 women, 19 men) with anterior-circulation large-vessel occlusion who underwent serial MRI examinations. Two neuroradiologists independently scored PIRI on presentation MRI examinations on the basis of the ratio of the length of the portion of the insula showing restricted diffusion to the insula's total length using a previously described 0-4 scale; scores were categorized (mild [0-1], moderate [2], or severe [3-4]), and discrepancies were resolved by consensus. The 90-day modified Rankin Scale (mRS) was obtained. As part of earlier clinical trial analyses, collateral pattern on CTA was classified as symmetric, malignant, or other, and infarct volumes were measured on DWI during the initial 48 hours after presentation and on FLAIR at 90 days. RESULTS. Interrater agreement for PIRI category was strong (κ = 0.89). PIRI was mild in 10, moderate in four, and severe in 17 patients. For mild, moderate, and severe PIRI, median IGR from onset to presentation was 1.6 cm³/h, 8.5 cm³/h, and 17.5 cm³/h (p < .001); median IGR from presentation to 48 hours was 0.3 cm³/h, 0.2 cm³/h, and 1.2 cm³/h (p = .005); median 90-day infarct volume was 9.4 cm³, 39.8 cm³, and 108.6 cm³ (p = .01); and 90-day mRS of 2 or less occurred in 78%, 67%, and 6% of patients (p = .001). In multivariable models controlling for age, internal carotid artery occlusion, and collateral pattern, PIRI category independently predicted onset-to-presentation IGR (β = 1.5), presentation-to-48-hour IGR (β = 1.3), and 90-day mRS of 2 or less (OR = 0.2). For predicting 90-day mRS of 2 or less, mild-to-moderate PIRI had sensitivity of 90.0% and specificity of 84.2%; symmetric collateral pattern had sensitivity of 70.0% and specificity of 73.7%. CONCLUSION. PIRI was independently associated with IGR and 90-day outcome. CLINICAL IMPACT. PIRI may help identify patients who could benefit from late-window EVT when requiring transfer to EVT-capable centers.