Planning for wolf-livestock coexistence: landscape context predicts livestock depredation risk in agricultural landscapes

Extensive pastoral livestock systems in Central Europe provide multiple ecosystem services and support biodiversity in agricultural landscapes but their viability is challenged by livestock depredation (LD) associated with the recovery of wolf populations. Variation in the spatial distribution of LD depends on a suite of factors, most of which are unavailable at the appropriate scales. To assess if LD patterns can be predicted sufficiently with land use data alone at the scale of one federal state in Germany, we employed a machine-learning-supported resource selection approach. The model used LD monitoring data, and publicly available land use data to describe the landscape configuration at LD and control sites (resolution 4 km * 4 km). We used SHapley Additive exPlanations to assess the importance and effects of landscape configuration and cross-validation to evaluate the model performance. Our model predicted the spatial distribution of LD events with a mean accuracy of 74%. The most influential land use features included grassland, farmland and forest. The risk of livestock depredation was high if these three landscape features co-occurred with a specific proportion. A high share of grassland, combined with a moderate proportion of forest and farmland, increased LD risk. We then used the model to predict the LD risk in five regions; the resulting risk maps showed high congruence with observed LD events. While of correlative nature and lacking specific information on wolf and livestock distribution and husbandry practices, our pragmatic modelling approach can guide spatial prioritisation of damage prevention or mitigation practices to improve livestock-wolf coexistence in agricultural landscapes.