Examining the Causal Mediating Role of Cardiovascular Disease on the Effect of Subclinical Cardiovascular Disease on Cognitive Impairment via Separable Effects

Background: An important epidemiological question is understanding how vascular risk factors contribute to cognitive impairment. Using data from the Cardiovascular Health Cognition Study, we investigated how subclinical cardiovascular disease (sCVD) relates to cognitive impairment risk and the extent to which the hypothesized risk is mediated by the incidence of clinically manifested cardiovascular disease (CVD), both overall and within apolipoprotein E-4 (APOE-4) subgroups.

Methods: We adopted a novel "separable effects" causal mediation framework that assumes that sCVD has separably intervenable atherosclerosis-related components. We then ran several mediation models, adjusting for key covariates.

Results: We found that sCVD increased overall risk of cognitive impairment (risk ratio [RR] = 1.21, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.03, 1.44); however, there was little or no mediation by incident clinically manifested CVD (indirect effect RR = 1.02, 95% CI: 1.00, 1.03). We also found attenuated effects among APOE-4 carriers (total effect RR = 1.09, 95% CI: 0.81, 1.47; indirect effect RR = 0.99, 95% CI: 0.96, 1.01) and stronger findings among noncarriers (total effect RR = 1.29, 95% CI: 1.05, 1.60; indirect effect RR = 1.02, 95% CI: 1.00, 1.05). In secondary analyses restricting cognitive impairment to only incident dementia cases, we found similar effect patterns.

Conclusions: We found that the effect of sCVD on cognitive impairment does not seem to be mediated by CVD, both overall and within APOE-4 subgroups. Our results were critically assessed via sensitivity analyses, and they were found to be robust. Future work is needed to fully understand the relationship between sCVD, CVD, and cognitive impairment.