Evaluation of Ultrasound-based Surveillance for Hepatocellular Carcinoma in Patients at Risk: Results From a German Multicenter Retrospective Cohort Study

Background and aims: Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) surveillance in patients at risk is strongly recommended and usually performed by ultrasound (US) semiannually with or without alfa-fetoprotein (AFP) measurements. Quality parameters except for surveillance intervals have not been strictly defined. We aimed to evaluate surveillance success and risk factors for surveillance failure.

Methods: Patients with ≥1 US prior to HCC diagnosis performed at four tertiary referral hospitals in Germany between 2008 and 2019 were retrospectively analyzed. Surveillance success was defined as HCC detection within Milan criteria.

Results: Only 47% of 156 patients, median age 63 (interquartile range: 57-70) years, 56% male, and 96% with cirrhosis, received recommended surveillance modality and interval. Surveillance failure occurred in 29% and was significantly associated with lower median model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) score odds ratio (OR) 1.154, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.027-1.297, p=0.025) and HCC localization within right liver lobe (OR: 6.083, 95% CI: 1.303-28.407, p=0.022), but not with AFP ≥200 µg/L. Patients with surveillance failure had significantly more intermediate/advanced tumor stages (93% vs. 6%, p<0.001), fewer curative treatment options (15% vs. 75%, p<0.001) and lower survival at 1 year (54% vs. 75%, p=0.041), 2 years (32% vs. 57%, p=0.019) and 5 years (0% vs. 16%, p=0.009). Alcoholic and non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (OR: 6.1, 95% CI: 1.7-21.3, p=0.005) and ascites (OR: 3.9, 95% CI: 1.2-12.6, p=0.021) were independently associated with severe visual limitations on US.

Conclusions: US-based HCC surveillance in patients at risk frequently fails and its failure is associated with unfavorable patient-related outcomes. Lower MELD score and HCC localization within right liver lobe were significantly associated with surveillance failure.