Importance: The growing global prevalence of autism spectrum disorder (ASD) is associated with increasing costs for support services. Ascertaining the effects of a successful preemptive intervention for infants showing early behavioral signs of autism on human services budgets is highly policy relevant.
Objective: To estimate the net cost impact of the iBASIS-Video Interaction to Promote Positive Parenting (iBASIS-VIPP) intervention on the Australian government.
Design, setting, and participants: Infants (aged 12 months) showing early behavioral indicators of autism were recruited through community settings into the multicenter Australian iBASIS-VIPP randomized clinical trial (RCT), a 5- to 6-month preemptive parent-mediated intervention, between June 9, 2016, and March 30, 2018, and were followed up for 18 months to age 3 years. This economic evaluation, including cost analysis (intervention and cost consequences) and cost-effectiveness analyses of iBASIS-VIPP compared with usual care (treatment as usual [TAU]), modeled outcomes observed at age 3 through to 12 years (13th birthday) and was conducted from April 1, 2021, to January 30, 2023. Data analysis was conducted from July 1, 2021, to January 29, 2023.
Exposures: iBASIS-VIPP intervention.
Main outcomes and measures: To project the diagnostic trajectory and associated disability support costs drawing on the Australian National Disability Insurance Scheme (NDIS), the main outcome was the differential treatment cost of iBASIS-VIPP plus TAU vs TAU and disability-related government costs modeled to age 12 years, using a clinical diagnosis of ASD and developmental delay (with autism traits) at 3 years. Costs were calculated in Australian dollars and converted to US dollars. Economic performance was measured through the following: (1) differential net present value (NPV) cost (iBASIS-VIPP less TAU), (2) investment return (dollars saved for each dollar invested, taking a third-party payer perspective), (3) break-even age when treatment cost was offset by downstream cost savings, and (4) cost-effectiveness in terms of the differential treatment cost per differential ASD diagnosis at age 3 years. Alternate values of key parameters were modeled in 1-way and probabilistic sensitivity analysis, the latter identifying the likelihood of an NPV cost savings.
Results: Of the 103 infants enrolled in the iBASIS-VIPP RCT, 70 (68.0%) were boys. Follow-up data at age 3 years were available for 89 children who received TAU (44 [49.4%]) or iBASIS-VIPP (45 [50.6%]) and were included in this analysis. The estimated mean differential treatment cost was A $5131 (US $3607) per child for iBASIS-VIPP less TAU. The best estimate of NPV cost savings was A $10 695 (US $7519) per child (discounted at 3% per annum). For each dollar invested in treatment, a savings of A $3.08 (US $3.08) was estimated; the break-even cost occurred at age 5.3 years (approximately 4 years after intervention delivery). The mean differential treatment cost per lower incident case of ASD was A $37 181 (US $26 138). We estimated that there was an 88.9% chance that iBASIS-VIPP would deliver a cost savings for the NDIS, the dominant third-party payer.
Conclusions and relevance: The results of this study suggest that iBASIS-VIPP represents a likely good-value societal investment for supporting neurodivergent children. The estimated net cost savings were considered conservative, as they covered only third-party payer costs incurred by the NDIS and outcomes were modeled to just age 12 years. These findings further suggest that preemptive interventions may be a feasible, effective, and efficient new clinical pathway for ASD, reducing disability and the costs of support services. Long-term follow-up of children receiving preemptive intervention is needed to confirm the modeled results.