Radiographic and α-fetoprotein response predict pathologic complete response to immunotherapy plus a TKI in hepatocellular carcinoma: a multicenter study

Background: Pathologic complete response (pCR) following preoperative systemic therapy is associated with improved outcomes after subsequent liver transplant/resection in hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). However, the relationship between radiographic and histopathological response remains unclear.

Methods: We retrospectively examined patients with initially unresectable HCC who received tyrosine kinase inhibitor (TKI) plus anti-programmed death 1 (PD-1) therapy before undergoing liver resection between March 2019 and September 2021 across 7 hospitals in China. Radiographic response was evaluated using mRECIST. A pCR was defined as no viable tumor cells in resected samples.

Results: We included 35 eligible patients, of whom 15 (42.9%) achieved pCR after systemic therapy. After a median follow-up of 13.2 months, tumors recurred in 8 non-pCR and 1 pCR patient. Before resection, there were 6 complete responses, 24 partial responses, 4 stable disease cases, and 1 progressive disease case, per mRECIST. Predicting pCR by radiographic response yielded an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of 0.727 (95% CI: 0.558-0.902), with an optimal cutoff value of 80% reduction in the enhanced area in MRI (called major radiographic response), which had a 66.7% sensitivity, 85.0% specificity, and a 77.1% diagnostic accuracy. When radiographic response was combined with α-fetoprotein response, the AUC was 0.926 (95% CI: 0.785-0.999); the optimal cutoff value was 0.446, which had a 91.7% sensitivity, 84.6%, specificity, and an 88.0% diagnostic accuracy.

Conclusions: In patients with unresectable HCC receiving combined TKI/anti-PD 1 therapy, major radiographic response alone or combined with α-fetoprotein response may predict pCR.