A competing risk analysis of the patterns and risk factors of recurrence in early-stage non-small cell lung cancer treated with stereotactic ablative radiotherapy

Introduction: To assess patterns of recurrence after stereotactic ablative radiotherapy (SABR) in patient ineligible to surgery with early-stage non-small cell lung cancer (ES-NSCLC), report survival and treatment after first recurrence.

Methods: We performed a retrospective analysis on 1068 patients with ES-NSCLC and 1143 lesions. Between group differences were estimated using competing risk analysis and cause-specific hazard ratios were calculated. Overall survival (OS) after first recurrence was calculated.

Results: Median follow-up was 37.6 months. Univariate analysis demonstrated that ultra-central location was associated with higher risk of regional recurrence (RR) and distant metastasis (DM) (p = 0.004 and 0.01). Central lesions were associated with higher risk of local recurrence (LR) and RR (p < 0.001). Ultra-central lesions were associated with shorter OS (p = 0.002) compared to peripheral lesions. In multivariate analysis, central location was the only factor associated with increased LR and RR risks (p = 0.016 and 0.005). Median OS after first recurrence was 14.8 months. There was no difference in OS after first recurrence between ultra-central, central, and peripheral lesions (p = 0.83). Patients who received a second SABR course had an OS of 51.3 months, compared to 19.5 months with systemic therapy and 8.1 months with supportive care (p < 0.0001).

Discussion: The main prognostic factor for LR and RR risks was central location. Ultra-central and central tumors might benefit from treatment intensification strategies such as dose escalation and/or addition of systemic therapy to improve radiotherapy outcomes. After a first recurrence post SABR, patients with contralateral lung recurrences and those who were eligible to receive a second course of SABR had improved OS.