Accuracy of the Head and Neck Cancer Risk Calculator in identifying maxillofacial malignancies

The OMFS urgent suspicion of cancer (USOC) referral pathway for head and neck cancer is costly in terms of time and resources, and despite NICE referral guidance, it has a low conversion rate with many inappropriate referrals. The Head and Neck Cancer Risk Calculator version 2 (HaNC-RC-v2) gives recommendations to primary care referrers on appropriate referral priority. To our knowledge, this is the first study to investigate the accuracy of the HaNC-RC-v2 in a cohort of maxillofacial referrals. Electronic patient records were reviewed for all malignancies diagnosed by OMFS in 2019 (n = 54), and a sample of USOC referrals to OMFS (n = 204). The HaNC-RC-v2 was applied to each patient, using information from the referral letter and the clinical notes from the new patient consultation. The mean and median HaNC-RC-v2 scores for patients with malignancy were 42.22% and 32.23%, respectively. For patients without malignancy, mean and median scores were 9.27% and 5.68%, respectively. There was a statistically significant relation between the presence/absence of malignancy and the recommendation made by the risk calculator (p = 0.0012). The calculator recommended USOC referral for 76% (41/54) of patients with malignancy, and only 41% (83/204) of patients without malignancy. The negative predictive value of the HaNC-RC-v2 was 99.2%. The calculator has the potential to reduce the number of inappropriate referrals to OMFS via the USOC pathway.