Development and internal validation of a nomogram for predicting survival of nonoperative EGFR-positive locally advanced elderly esophageal cancers

Purpose: This study aims to develop and validate a prediction model for non-operative, epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR)-positive, locally advanced elderly esophageal cancer (LAEEC).

Methods: A total of 80 EGFR-positive LAEEC patients were included in the study. All patients underwent radiotherapy, while 41 cases received icotinib concurrent systemic therapy. A nomogram was established using univariable and multivariable Cox analyses. The model's efficacy was assessed through area under curve (AUC) values, receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves at different time points, time-dependent AUC (tAUC), calibration curves, and clinical decision curves. Bootstrap resampling and out-of-bag (OOB) cross-validation methods were employed to verify the model's robustness. Subgroup survival analysis was also conducted.

Results: Univariable and multivariable Cox analyses revealed that icotinib, stage, and ECOG score were independent prognostic factors for LAEEC patients. The AUCs of model-based prediction scoring (PS) for 1-, 2-, and 3-year overall survival (OS) were 0.852, 0.827, and 0.792, respectively. Calibration curves demonstrated that the predicted mortality was consistent with the actual mortality. The time-dependent AUC of the model exceeded 0.75, and the internal cross-validation calibration curves showed good agreement between predicted and actual mortality. Clinical decision curves indicated that the model had a substantial net clinical benefit within a threshold probability range of 0.2 to 0.8. Model-based risk stratification analysis demonstrated the model's excellent ability to distinguish survival risk. Further subgroup analyses showed that icotinib significantly improved survival in patients with stage III and ECOG score of 1 (HR 0.122, P<0.001).

Conclusions: Our nomogram model effectively predicts the overall survival of LAEEC patients, and the benefits of icotinib were found in the clinical stage III population with good ECOG scores.