Association between MetS-IR and prediabetes risk and sex differences: a cohort study based on the Chinese population

Objective: The metabolic score for insulin resistance (MetS-IR) is an emerging surrogate marker for insulin resistance (IR). This study aimed to investigate the association and sex differences between MetS-IR and prediabetes risk in a Chinese population.

Methods: This cohort study included 100,309 adults with normoglycemia at baseline and had followed longitudinally for 5 years, and with prediabetes, defined according to the 2018 American Diabetes Association (ADA) recommended diagnostic criteria, as the outcome of interest. Multivariate Cox proportional hazards regression and restricted cubic spline (RCS) regression models were used to assess the association between MetS-IR and prediabetes risk.

Results: During an observation period of 312,843 person-years, 7,735 (14.84%) men and 4,617 (9.57%) women with pre-diabetes onset were recorded. After fully adjusting for confounders, we found an independent and positive correlation between MetS-IR and the risk of prediabetes in the Chinese population, and the degree of correlation was stronger in women than in men (HR: 1.24 vs 1.16, P-interaction<0.05). Furthermore, using RCS nested in the Cox regression model, we found that there was a nonlinear correlation between MetS-IR and prediabetes risk in both sexes with an obvious saturation effect point, and when the MetS-IR was greater than the value of the saturation effect point, the risk of prediabetes was gradually leveling off. We further calculated the saturation effect points of MetS-IR used to evaluate the risk of prediabetes which in men was 42.82, and in women was 41.78.

Conclusion: In this large cohort study, our results supported that MetS-IR was independently and positively associated with the risk of prediabetes in the Chinese population, with the association being stronger in women than in men.