PRO-C3 is a predictor of clinical outcomes in distinct cohorts of patients with advanced liver disease

Mette J Nielsen; Grace E Dolman; Rebecca Harris; Peder Frederiksen; Jane Chalmers; Jane I Grove; William L Irving; Morten A Karsdal; Keyur Patel; Diana Julie Leeming; Indra Neil Guha

doi:10.1016/j.jhepr.2023.100743

PRO-C3 is a predictor of clinical outcomes in distinct cohorts of patients with advanced liver disease

JHEP Rep. 2023 Mar 28;5(6):100743. doi: 10.1016/j.jhepr.2023.100743. eCollection 2023 Jun.

Authors

Mette J Nielsen¹, Grace E Dolman², Rebecca Harris², Peder Frederiksen¹, Jane Chalmers², Jane I Grove^{2

3}, William L Irving^{2

4}, Morten A Karsdal¹, Keyur Patel⁵, Diana Julie Leeming¹, Indra Neil Guha^{2

3}

Affiliations

¹ Nordic Bioscience, Herlev, Denmark.
² National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Nottingham Biomedical Research Centre, Nottingham University Hospitals NHS Trust and University of Nottingham, Nottingham, UK.
³ Nottingham Digestive Diseases Centre, School of Medicine, University of Nottingham, Nottingham, UK.
⁴ School of Life Sciences, University of Nottingham, Nottingham, UK.
⁵ Division of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, University of Toronto Health Network, Toronto, ON, Canada.

Abstract

Background & aims: Fibroblast activity is a key feature of fibrosis progression and organ function loss, leading to liver-related complications and mortality. The fibrogenesis marker, PRO-C3, has been shown to have prognostic significance in relation to fibrosis progression and as a treatment efficacy marker. We investigated whether PRO-C3 was prognostic for clinical outcome and mortality in two distinct cohorts of compensated cirrhosis.

Methods: Cohort 1 was a rapid fibrosis progression cohort including 104 patients with HCV and biopsy-proven Ishak fibrosis stage ≥3 without prior clinical events. Cohort 2 was a prospective cohort including 172 patients with compensated cirrhosis of mixed aetiology. Patients were assessed for clinical outcomes. PRO-C3 was assessed in serum at baseline in cohorts 1 and 2, and compared with model for end-stage liver disease and albumin-bilirubin (ALBI) scores.

Results: In cohort 1, a 2-fold increase in PRO-C3 was associated with 2.7-fold increased hazard of liver-related events (95% CI 1.6-4.6), whereas a one unit increase in ALBI score was associated with a 6.5-fold increased hazard (95% CI 2.9-14.6). In cohort 2, a 2-fold increase in PRO-C3 was associated with a 2.7-fold increased hazard (95% CI 1.8-3.9), whereas a one unit increase in ALBI score was associated with a 6.3-fold increased hazard (95% CI 3.0-13.2). A multivariable Cox regression analysis identified PRO-C3 and ALBI as being independently associated with the hazard of liver-related outcomes.

Conclusions: PRO-C3 and ALBI were independent prognostic factors for predicting liver-related clinical outcomes. Understanding the dynamic range of PRO-C3 might enhance its use for both drug development and clinical practice.

Impact and implications: We tested novel proteins of liver scarring (PRO-C3) in two groups of liver patients with advanced disease to see if they could predict clinical events. We found that this marker and an established test called ALBI were both independently associated with future liver-related clinical outcomes.

Keywords: Biomarker; Cirrhosis; Extracellular matrix; Outcome.