Development of a predictive model for identifying women vulnerable to HIV in Chicago

Introduction: Researchers in the United States have created several models to predict persons most at risk for HIV. Many of these predictive models use data from all persons newly diagnosed with HIV, the majority of whom are men, and specifically men who have sex with men (MSM). Consequently, risk factors identified by these models are biased toward features that apply only to men or capture sexual behaviours of MSM. We sought to create a predictive model for women using cohort data from two major hospitals in Chicago with large opt-out HIV screening programs.

Methods: We matched 48 newly diagnosed women to 192 HIV-negative women based on number of previous encounters at University of Chicago or Rush University hospitals. We examined data for each woman for the two years prior to either their HIV diagnosis or their last encounter. We assessed risk factors including demographic characteristics and clinical diagnoses taken from patient electronic medical records (EMR) using odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals. We created a multivariable logistic regression model and measured predictive power with the area under the curve (AUC). In the multivariable model, age group, race, and ethnicity were included a priori due to increased risk for HIV among specific demographic groups.

Results: The following clinical diagnoses were significant at the bivariate level and were included in the model: pregnancy (OR 1.96 (1.00, 3.84)), hepatitis C (OR 5.73 (1.24, 26.51)), substance use (OR 3.12 (1.12, 8.65)) and sexually transmitted infections (STIs) chlamydia, gonorrhoea, or syphilis. We also a priori included demographic factors that are associated with HIV. Our final model had an AUC of 0.74 and included healthcare site, age group, race, ethnicity, pregnancy, hepatitis C, substance use, and STI diagnosis.

Conclusions: Our predictive model showed acceptable discrimination between those who were and were not newly diagnosed with HIV. We identified risk factors such as recent pregnancy, recent hepatitis C diagnosis, and substance use in addition to the traditionally used recent STI diagnosis that can be incorporated by health systems to detect women who are vulnerable to HIV and would benefit from preexposure prophylaxis (PrEP).