Application of ultrasound shear wave elastography in pre-operative and quantitative prediction of clinically relevant post-operative pancreatic fistula after pancreatectomy: a prospective study for the investigation of risk evaluation model

Objectives: The aim of this study was to modify recognized clinically relevant post-operative pancreatic fistula (CR-POPF) risk evaluation models with quantitative ultrasound shear wave elastography (SWE) values and identified clinical parameters to improve the objectivity and reliability of the prediction.

Methods: Two prospective, successive cohorts were initially designed for the establishment of CR-POPF risk evaluation model and the internal validation. Patients who scheduled to receive pancreatectomy were enrolled. Virtual touch tissue imaging and quantification (VTIQ)-SWE was used to quantify pancreatic stiffness. CR-POPF was diagnosed according to 2016 International Study Group of Pancreatic Fistula standard. Recognized peri-operative risk factors of CR-POPF were analyzed, and the independent variables selected from multivariate logistic regression were used to build the prediction model.

Results: Finally, the CR-POPF risk evaluation model was built in a group of 143 patients (cohort 1). CR-POPF occurred in 52/143 (36%) patients. Constructed from SWE values and other identified clinical parameters, the model achieved an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.866, with sensitivity, specificity, and likelihood ratio of 71.2%, 80.2%, and 3.597 in predicting CR-POPF. Decision curve of modified model revealed a better clinical benefit compared to the previous clinical prediction models. The models were then examined via internal validation in a separate collection of 72 patients (cohort 2).

Conclusions: Risk evaluation model based on SWE and clinical parameters is a potential non-invasive way to pre-operatively, objectively predict CR-POPF after pancreatectomy.

Clinical relevance statement: Our modified model based on ultrasound shear wave elastography may provide an easy access in pre-operative and quantitative evaluating the risk of CR-POPF following pancreatectomy and improve the objectivity and reliability of the prediction compared to previous clinical models.

Key points: • Modified prediction model based on ultrasound shear wave elastography (SWE) provides an easy access for clinicians to pre-operatively, objectively evaluate the risk of clinically relevant post-operative pancreatic fistula (CR-POPF) following pancreatectomy. • Prospective study with validation showed that the modified model provides better diagnostic efficacy and clinical benefits compared to previous clinical models in predicting CR-POPF. • Peri-operative management of CR-POPF high-risk patients becomes more possible.