Crafting a Personalized Prognostic Model for Malignant Prostate Cancer Patients Using Risk Gene Signatures Discovered through TCGA-PRAD Mining, Machine Learning, and Single-Cell RNA-Sequencing

Background: Prostate cancer is a significant clinical issue, particularly for high Gleason score (GS) malignancy patients. Our study aimed to engineer and validate a risk model based on the profiles of high-GS PCa patients for early identification and the prediction of prognosis.

Methods: We conducted differential gene expression analysis on patient samples from The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA) and enriched our understanding of gene functions. Using the least absolute selection and shrinkage operator (LASSO) regression, we established a risk model and validated it using an independent dataset from the International Cancer Genome Consortium (ICGC). Clinical variables were incorporated into a nomogram to predict overall survival (OS), and machine learning was used to explore the risk factor characteristics' impact on PCa prognosis. Our prognostic model was confirmed using various databases, including single-cell RNA-sequencing datasets (scRNA-seq), the Cancer Cell Line Encyclopedia (CCLE), PCa cell lines, and tumor tissues.

Results: We identified 83 differentially expressed genes (DEGs). Furthermore, WASIR1, KRTAP5-1, TLX1, KIF4A, and IQGAP3 were determined to be significant risk factors for OS and progression-free survival (PFS). Based on these five risk factors, we developed a risk model and nomogram for predicting OS and PFS, with a C-index of 0.823 (95% CI, 0.766-0.881) and a 10-year area under the curve (AUC) value of 0.788 (95% CI, 0.633-0.943). Additionally, the 3-year AUC was 0.759 when validating using ICGC. KRTAP5-1 and WASIR1 were found to be the most influential prognosis factors when using the optimized machine learning model. Finally, the established model was interrelated with immune cell infiltration, and the signals were found to be differentially expressed in PCa cells when using scRNA-seq datasets and tissues.

Conclusions: We engineered an original and novel prognostic model based on five gene signatures through TCGA and machine learning, providing new insights into the risk of scarification and survival prediction for PCa patients in clinical practice.