In-Person Instruction and Educational Outcomes of K-8 Students During the COVID-19 Pandemic

Objectives: Quantify the relationship between district policy permitting in-person instruction and educational outcomes during the 2020 to 2021 academic year for kindergarten through eighth grade students.

Methods: An ecological, repeated cross-sectional analysis of grade-level proficiency of students enrolled in public school districts in North Carolina (n = 115 school districts) was conducted. Univariate and multivariate analyses were performed to evaluate the association between the proportion of the school year a district spent in-person and 2020 to 2021 end-of-year student proficiency in the district. We then fit a multivariable linear regression model, weighted by district size, and adjusted for district-level 2018 to 2019 proficiency and district-level factors (rural or urban, area deprivation).

Results: Compared to 2018 to 2019, there was a 12.1% decrease (95% confidence interval [CI]: 16.8-19.3) in mathematics and an 18.1% decrease (95% CI: 10.8-13.4) in reading proficiency across the state at the end of 2020 to 2021. Compared to a district that remained entirely remote for the 2020 to 2021 school year, a district offering full in-person instruction had 12% (95% CI: 11%-12.9%) and 4.1% (95% CI: 3.5%-4.8%) more students achieve grade-level proficiency in mathematics and reading, respectively. In-person instruction was associated with greater increases in mathematics proficiency than reading, and greater increases in elementary-level students' proficiency than middle school-level.

Conclusions: The proportion of students achieving grade-level proficiency in 2020 to 2021 fell below prepandemic levels at each evaluated time point in the academic year. Increased time spent in-person by a school district was associated with an increased proportion of students achieving grade-level end-of-grade proficiency in both mathematics and reading.