Understanding colorectal cancer risk for symptomatic patients in primary care: A cohort study utilising faecal immunochemical tests and blood results in England

Background: A faecal immunochemical tests (FIT) cut-off of ≥10 μg Hb/g faeces is now recommended in the UK as a gateway to urgent (suspected cancer) investigation for colorectal cancer (CRC), based on an expected CRC risk threshold of 3%.

Aims: To quantify the risk of CRC at FIT cut-offs by age, haemoglobin and platelet strata.

Methods: A cohort study of a symptomatic CRC pathway based on primary care FIT tests in Nottingham, UK (November 2017-2021) with 1-year follow-up. Heat maps showed the cumulative 1-year CRC risk using Kaplan-Meier estimates.

Results: In total, 514 (1.5%) CRCs were diagnosed following 33,694 index FIT requests. Individuals with a FIT ≥ 10 μg Hb/g faeces had a >3% risk of CRC, except patients under the age of 40 years (CRC risk 1.45% [95% CI: 0.03%-2.86%]). Non-anaemic patients with a FIT < 100 μg Hb/g faeces had a CRC risk of <3%, except those between the age of 70 and 85 years (5.26% 95% CI: 2.72%-7.73%). Using a ≥3% CRC threshold in patients <55 years calculated using FIT, age and anaemia might allow 160-220 colonoscopies per 10,000 FITs to be re-purposed, at a cost of missing 1-2 CRCs.

Conclusions: FIT alone with a single cut-off is unlikely to be a panacea for optimising CRC diagnosis, as risk varies by FIT, age and anaemia when faecal haemoglobin levels are below 100 μg Hb/g. Tailored FIT cut-offs for investigation on a CRC pathway could reduce the number of investigations needed at a 3% CRC risk threshold.