IL-1R2-based biomarker models predict melioidosis mortality independent of clinical data

Introduction: Melioidosis is an often-fatal tropical infectious disease caused by the Gram-negative bacillus Burkholderia pseudomallei, but few studies have identified promising biomarker candidates to predict outcome.

Methods: In 78 prospectively enrolled patients hospitalized with melioidosis, six candidate protein biomarkers, identified from the literature, were measured in plasma at enrollment. A multi-biomarker model was developed using least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression, and mortality discrimination was compared to a clinical variable model by receiver operating characteristic curve analysis. Mortality prediction was confirmed in an external validation set of 191 prospectively enrolled patients hospitalized with melioidosis.

Results: LASSO regression selected IL-1R2 and soluble triggering receptor on myeloid cells 1 (sTREM-1) for inclusion in the candidate biomarker model. The areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) for mortality discrimination for the IL-1R2 + sTREM-1 model (AUC 0.81, 95% CI 0.72-0.91) as well as for an IL-1R2-only model (AUC 0.78, 95% CI 0.68-0.88) were higher than for a model based on a modified Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) score (AUC 0.69, 95% CI 0.56-0.81, p < 0.01, p = 0.03, respectively). In the external validation set, the IL-1R2 + sTREM-1 model (AUC 0.86, 95% CI 0.81-0.92) had superior 28-day mortality discrimination compared to a modified SOFA model (AUC 0.80, 95% CI 0.74-0.86, p < 0.01) and was similar to a model containing IL-1R2 alone (AUC 0.82, 95% CI 0.76-0.88, p = 0.33).

Conclusion: Biomarker models containing IL-1R2 had improved 28-day mortality prediction compared to clinical variable models in melioidosis and may be targets for future, rapid test development.