Integrated molecular analysis reveals hypermethylation and overexpression of HOX genes to be poor prognosticators in isocitrate dehydrogenase mutant glioma

Background: Diffuse gliomas represent over 80% of malignant brain tumors ranging from low-grade to aggressive high-grade lesions. Within isocitrate dehydrogenase (IDH)-mutant gliomas, there is a high variability in survival and a need to more accurately predict outcome.

Methods: To identify and characterize a predictive signature of outcome in gliomas, we utilized an integrative molecular analysis (using methylation, mRNA, copy number variation (CNV), and mutation data), analyzing a total of 729 IDH-mutant samples including a test set of 99 from University Health Network (UHN) and 2 validation cohorts including the German Cancer Research Center (DKFZ) and The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA).

Results: Cox regression analysis of methylation data from the UHN cohort identified CpG-based signatures that split the glioma cohort into 2 prognostic groups strongly predicting survival that were validated using 2 independent cohorts from TCGA and DKFZ (all P-values < .0001). The methylation signatures that predicted poor outcomes also exhibited high CNV instability and hypermethylation of HOX gene probes. Integrated multi-platform analyses using mRNA and methylation (iRM) showed that parallel HOX gene overexpression and simultaneous hypermethylation were significantly associated with increased mutational load, high aneuploidy, and worse survival (P-value < .0001). A 7-HOX gene signature was developed and validated using the most significantly associated HOX genes with patient outcome in both 1p/19q codeleted and non-codeleted IDHmut gliomas.

Conclusions: HOX gene methylation and expression provide important prognostic information in IDH-mutant gliomas that are not captured by current molecular diagnostics. A 7-HOX gene signature of outcome shows significant survival differences in both 1p/19q codeleted and non-codeleted IDH-mutant gliomas.