Predicting Penumbra Salvage and Infarct Growth in Acute Ischemic Stroke: A Multifactor Survival Game

Background: Effective treatment of acute ischemic stroke requires reperfusion of salvageable tissue. We investigated the predictors of penumbra salvage (PS) and infarct growth (IG) in a large cohort of stroke patients.

Methods: In the ASTRAL registry from 2003 to 2016, we selected middle cerebral artery strokes <24 h with a high-quality CT angiography and CT perfusion. PS and IG were correlated in multivariate analyses with clinical, biochemical and radiological variables, and with clinical outcomes.

Results: Among 4090 patients, 551 were included in the study, 50.8% male, mean age (±SD) 66.3 ± 14.7 years, mean admission NIHSS (±SD 13.3 ± 7.1) and median onset-to-imaging-time (IQR) 170 (102 to 385) minutes. Increased PS was associated with the following: higher BMI and lower WBC; neglect; larger penumbra; absence of early ischemic changes, leukoaraiosis and other territory involvement; and higher clot burden score. Reduced IG was associated with the following: non-smokers; lower glycemia; larger infarct core; absence of early ischemic changes, chronic vascular brain lesions, other territory involvement, extracranial arterial pathology and hyperdense middle cerebral artery sign; and higher clot burden score. When adding subacute variables, recanalization was associated with increased PS and reduced IG, and the absence of haemorrhage with reduced IG. Collateral status was not significantly associated with IG nor with PS. Increased PS and reduced IG correlated with better 3- and 12-month outcomes.

Conclusion: In our comprehensive analysis, multiple factors were found to be responsible for PS or IG, the strongest being radiological features. These findings may help to better select patients, particularly for more aggressive or late acute stroke treatment.