A Model Predicting Healthcare Capacity Gaps For Alzheimer's Disease-Modifying Treatment in Canada

Background: Alzheimer's disease (AD) is experienced by > 600,000 Canadians. Disease-modifying therapies (DMTs) for earlier stages of disease are in development. Existing health system capacity constraints and the need for biomarker-driven diagnostics to confirm DMT eligibility are concerning. This study aimed to characterize the capacity gap related to early AD (eAD) treatment with DMTs in Canada.

Methods: A capacity model was developed to simulate the flow of a patient from screening to treatment for eAD to quantify the gap between available and required healthcare resources and qualify the bottlenecks restricting the patient journey at a provincial and national level. The model inputs (epidemiological, human resource, and clinical) were evidence-based, healthcare professional-, and patient advocate-informed.

Results: The model estimated that nationally < 2% of patients would have access to the required healthcare resources for treatment with a DMT. Eligibility assessment represented the step with the largest capacity gap across all provinces, with a wait list of about 382,000 Canadians one year following DMT introduction. The top three resource gaps included AD specialist time and positron emission tomography and magnetic resonance imaging exam slots. Sensitivity analysis showed that full reliance on cerebrospinal fluid for eligibility testing increased capacity for assessment by about 47,000 patients.

Conclusion: This model highlights that the Canadian health system is critically under-resourced to diagnose, assess, and treat patients with eAD with DMT. It underscores an urgent need for national policy and provincial resource allocation to close the gap.