Quantitative risk assessment of the presence of fumonisin in corn produced in different regions of Brazil: Influence of climatic conditions

Letícia Dos Santos Lopes; Gustavo L P A Ramos; Verônica O Alvarenga; Fernanda B Campagnollo; Syllas B S Oliveira; Luisa Freire; Anderson S Sant'Ana

doi:10.1016/j.envres.2023.116907

Quantitative risk assessment of the presence of fumonisin in corn produced in different regions of Brazil: Influence of climatic conditions

Environ Res. 2023 Nov 15;237(Pt 1):116907. doi: 10.1016/j.envres.2023.116907. Epub 2023 Aug 18.

Authors

Letícia Dos Santos Lopes¹, Gustavo L P A Ramos², Verônica O Alvarenga³, Fernanda B Campagnollo⁴, Syllas B S Oliveira⁴, Luisa Freire⁵, Anderson S Sant'Ana⁶

Affiliations

¹ Embrapa Swine and Poultry, Concórdia, SC, Brazil; Department of Food Science and Nutrition, Faculty of Food Engineering, University of Campinas, Campinas, São Paulo, Brazil.
² Department of Bromatology, Faculty of Pharmacy, Fluminense Federal University, Niterói, RJ, Brazil.
³ Department of Food Science and Nutrition, Faculty of Food Engineering, University of Campinas, Campinas, São Paulo, Brazil; Department of Food Science, Faculty of Pharmacy, Federal University of Minas Gerais, Belo Horizonte, MG, Brazil.
⁴ Department of Food Science and Nutrition, Faculty of Food Engineering, University of Campinas, Campinas, São Paulo, Brazil.
⁵ Department of Food Science and Nutrition, Faculty of Food Engineering, University of Campinas, Campinas, São Paulo, Brazil; Faculty of Pharmaceutical Sciences, Food, and Nutrition, Federal University of Mato Grosso do Sul, Campo Grande, Mato Grosso do Sul, Brazil.
⁶ Department of Food Science and Nutrition, Faculty of Food Engineering, University of Campinas, Campinas, São Paulo, Brazil. Electronic address: [email protected].

PMID: 37597829
DOI: 10.1016/j.envres.2023.116907

Abstract

In this study, the probability of occurrence of fumonisins in corn in the states of greatest production in Brazil was determined. The data were analyzed through quantitative risk analysis using the Monte Carlo simulation. The results indicated that there is a strong correlation between fumonisins contamination levels and the geographical region due to the influence of climatic characteristics, with temperature having the main influence. The Southern states presented higher risks of occurrence and concentration levels of fumonisins in corn due to the temperate climate with lower average temperature and higher relative humidity and precipitation indices. Cultivation in the best season indicates a significant reduction in the production of fumonisins when this period was evaluated, with average concentration levels up to 42% lower. The generated data are important for regulatory agencies and the agricultural sector, which needs to be aware that the chance of success in grain production depends on efficient planning of the growing season, mainly concerning the climatic conditions to which it is subject to minimize the risks.

Keywords: Climate; Food safety; Mycotoxins; Probability; Risk.