Career Plans of US Physicians After the First 2 Years of the COVID-19 Pandemic

Objective: To assess the career plans of US physicians at the end of 2021 relative to 2011 and 2014.

Methods: Physicians in the United States were surveyed from December 9, 2021, to January 24, 2022, using methods similar to prior studies in 2011 and 2014. Responding physicians in active practice (n=1884) were included in the analysis. At all time-points, physicians indicated the likelihood they would (1) reduce clinical work hours in the next 12 months and (2) leave their current practice within 24 months.

Results: In 2021, 542 of 1344 (40.3%) indicated that it was "likely" or "definite" they would reduce clinical work hours in the next 12 months compared with 1120 of 6950 (16.1%) and 1275 of 6452 (19.8%) in 2011 and 2014. In 2021, 466 of 1817 (25.6%) indicated it was "likely" or "definite" they would leave their current practice in the next 24 months compared with 1284 of 6975 (18.4%) and 1726 of 6496 (26.6%) in 2011 and 2014. On multivariable analysis pooling responders from 2011, 2014, and 2021, physicians who responded in 2021 had higher odds of reporting intent to reduce clinical work hours compared with those who responded in 2014 (OR, 3.12; 95% CI, 2.73 to 3.57), whereas those responding in 2011 had lower odds relative to 2014 (OR, 0.81; 95% CI, 0.74 to 0.89).

Conclusion: Roughly two of every five US physicians intend to reduce their clinical work hours in the next year, more than double previous rates. These findings have potentially profound implications for the adequacy of a US physician workforce already facing substantial shortages.