Artificial intelligence-based recurrence prediction outperforms classical histopathological methods in pulmonary adenocarcinoma biopsies

Introduction: Between 10 and 50% of early-stage lung adenocarcinoma patients experience local or distant recurrence. Histological parameters such as a solid or micropapillary growth pattern are well-described risk factors for recurrence. However, not every patient presenting with such a pattern will develop recurrence. Designing a model which can more accurately predict recurrence on small biopsy samples can aid the stratification of patients for surgery, (neo-)adjuvant therapy, and follow-up.

Material and methods: In this study, a statistical model on biopsies fed with histological data from early and advanced-stage lung adenocarcinomas was developed to predict recurrence after surgical resection. Additionally, a convolutional neural network (CNN)-based artificial intelligence (AI) classification model, named AI-based Lung Adenocarcinoma Recurrence Predictor (AILARP), was trained to predict recurrence, with an ImageNet pre-trained EfficientNet that was fine-tuned on lung adenocarcinoma biopsies using transfer learning. Both models were validated using the same biopsy dataset to ensure that an accurate comparison was demonstrated.

Results: The statistical model had an accuracy of 0.49 for all patients when using histology data only. The AI classification model yielded a test accuracy of 0.70 and 0.82 and an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.74 and 0.87 on patch-wise and patient-wise hematoxylin and eosin (H&E) stained whole slide images (WSIs), respectively.

Conclusion: AI classification outperformed the traditional clinical approach for recurrence prediction on biopsies by a fair margin. The AI classifier may stratify patients according to their recurrence risk, based only on small biopsies. This model warrants validation in a larger lung biopsy cohort.