Global burden of cirrhosis and other chronic liver diseases due to nonalcoholic fatty liver disease, 1990-2019

Background: Nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) has become the leading cause of cirrhosis and other chronic liver diseases (COCLDs).

Aim: To conduct a comprehensive and comparable updated analysis of the global, regional, and national burden of COCLDs due to NAFLD in 204 countries and territories from 1990 and 2019 by age, sex, and sociodemographic index.

Methods: Data on COCLDs due to NAFLD were collected from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2019. Numbers and age-standardized prevalence, death, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) were estimated through a systematic analysis of modelled data from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2019. The estimated annual percentage change was used to determine the burden trend.

Results: In 2019, the global age-standardized prevalence rate of COCLDs due to NAFLD was 15022.90 per 100000 population [95% uncertainty interval (UI): 13493.19-16764.24], which increased by 24.51% (22.63% to 26.08%) from 1990, with an estimated annual percentage change of 0.78 (95% confidence interval: 0.74-0.82). In the same year, however, the age-standardized death rate and age-standardized DALYs per 100000 population were 1.66 (95%UI: 1.20-2.17) and 43.69 (95%UI: 31.28-58.38), respectively. North Africa and the Middle East had the highest prevalence rates of COCLDs due to NAFLD. The death rate increased with age up to the 95+ age group for both sexes. Males had higher numbers of prevalence, death rate, and DALYs than females across all age groups before the 65-69 age group. The sociodemographic index was negatively correlated with the age-standardized DALYs.

Conclusion: Globally, the age-standardized prevalence rate has increased during the past three decades. However, the age-standardized death rate and age-standardized DALYs decreased. There is geographical variation in the burden of COCLDs due to NAFLD. It is strongly recommended to improve the data quality of COCLDs due to NAFLD across all countries and regions to facilitate better monitoring of the burden of COCLDs due to NAFLD.