School Absenteeism as a Marker for Community COVID-19 Rates

Background: Reported community transmission rates of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) may not be accurate, particularly since at-home testing has become widely available. School absenteeism may serve as a marker of broader community COVID-19 transmission.

Methods: We performed an observational study of North Carolina kindergarten through 12th grade schools participating in the ABC Science Collaborative that offered in-school instruction, and contributed severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 data for at least 2 of 4 weeks monthly for the 2021-2022 academic year. Additionally, we analyzed publicly available databases including the North Carolina Department of Public Instruction, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention COVID-19 Data Repository, and National Center for Education Statistics. We described community and school COVID-19 infection rates compared with student monthly absenteeism rates to determine if the relationship between community COVID-19 infection rates and student absenteeism varied over time.

Results: We included 500 192 students from 27 school districts. For the 2021-2022 academic year, the student and community COVID-19 infection rates did not show a significant difference (P > .05) across each month of comparison. Student absenteeism rates and community COVID-19 infection rates by month showed a similar trend across the academic year. For every 1% increase in community infection percentage, we found a 1.68% (1.12-2.25%) increase in absenteeism (P < .001); for every 1 month change in time, we found a 0.12% (0.01-0.24%) increase in absenteeism (P < .05).

Conclusions: Student absenteeism and infection rates may be a useful marker of COVID-19 community infection rates when testing frequency and results reporting are inconsistent.