Variability of mpMRI diagnostic performance according to the upfront individual patient risk of having clinically significant prostate cancer

Background: To assess the variation of multiparametric magnetic resonance imaging (mpMRI) positive predictive value (PPV) according to each patient's risk of clinically significant prostate cancer (csPCa) based exclusively on clinical factors.

Methods: We evaluated 999 patients with positive mpMRI (PI-RADS ≥ 3) receiving targeted (TBx) plus systematic prostate biopsy. We built a multivariable logistic regression analysis (MVA) using clinical risk factors to calculate the individual patients' risk of harboring csPCa at TBx. A second MVA tested the association between individual patients' clinical risk and mpMRI PPV accounting for the PI-RADS score. Finally, we plotted the PPV of each PI-RADS score by the individual patient pretest probability of csPCa using a LOWESS approach.

Results: Overall, TBx found csPCa in 21%, 51%, and 80% of patients with PI-RADS 3, 4, and 5 lesions, respectively. At MVA, age, PSA, digital rectal examination (DRE), and prostate volume were significantly associated with the risk of csPCa at biopsy. DRE yielded the highest odds ratio (OR: 2.88; p < 0.001). The individual patient's clinical risk was significantly associated with mpMRI PPV (OR: 2.49; p < 0.001) using MVA. Plotting the mpMRI PPV according to the predicted clinical risks, we observed that for patients with clinical risk close to 0 versus patients with risk higher than 90%, the mpMRI PPV of PI-RADS 3, 4, and 5 ranged from 0% to 75%, from 0% to 96%, and from 45% to 100%, respectively.

Conclusion: mpMRI PPV varies according to the individual pretest patient's risk based on clinical factors. These findings should be considered in the decision-making process for patients with suspect MRI findings referred for a prostate biopsy. Moreover, our data support the need for further studies to create an individualized risk prediction tool.