Impact of COPD on mortality: An 8-year observational retrospective healthcare claims database cohort study

Background: Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is one of the leading causes of morbidity and mortality. Here we present a large observational study on the association of COPD and exacerbations with mortality (AvoidEx Mortality).

Methods: A real-world, observational cohort study with longitudinal analyses of German healthcare claims data in patients ≥40 years of age with a COPD diagnosis from 2011 to 2018 (n = 250,723) was conducted. Patients entered the cohort (index date) upon the first COPD diagnosis. To assess the impact of COPD on all-cause death, a propensity score-matched control group of non-COPD patients was constructed. The number and severity of exacerbations during a 12-month pre-index period were used to form subgroups. For each exacerbation subgroup the exacerbations during 12 months prior to death were analysed.

Results: COPD increases the all-cause mortality risk by almost 60% (HR 1.57 (95% CI 1.55-1.59)) in comparison to matched non-COPD controls, when controlling for other baseline covariates. The cumulative risk of death after 8 years was highest in patients with a history of more than one moderate or severe exacerbation. Among all deceased COPD patients, 17.2% had experienced a severe, and 34.8% a moderate exacerbation, within 3 months preceding death. Despite increasing exacerbation rates towards death, more than the half of patients were not receiving any recommended pharmacological COPD therapy in the year before death.

Conclusion: Our study illustrates the impact of COPD on mortality risk and highlights the need for consequent COPD management comprising exacerbation assessment and treatment.